Availability Heuristic

The availability heuristic estimates probability by how readily examples spring to mind. If instances come easily, we assume the thing is common.^[1] Usually that's a decent shortcut (heuristic) — common things are easier to recall — but it skews toward whatever is vivid, recent, or heavily reported rather than what's actually frequent. Plane crashes and shark attacks feel dangerously likely because they're dramatic and make the news; far deadlier, mundane risks (car crashes, heart disease) feel remote because they rarely grab attention. We end up fearing the memorable, not the probable.